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Kasikorn Research Centre (KRC) says the Russian economic crisis will cut Russian travel to Thailand by at least 9.3pc in 2014 and 24.6pc in 2015.
The forecast comes as a shock for the local travel industry as it relies heavily on this market.
Those factors have hit the Russian economy and would cause a slowdown in of 4pc next year, it said.
As Russians are a significant source of business for the country’s tourism, the economic crisis has impacted the Thailand tourism and export sectors. The sectors suffered a loss of B21,560 million, or 0.16pc of the country’s GDP.
The crisis discourages Russian travellers from spending on long-haul trips to places like Thailand.
The centre estimated that this year there would only be 1.58 million Russian travellers to the kingdom, down 9.3% and generating B1,130,000 million, a decline of 7.3%.
The bank projected that Russian tourists to Thailand would drop by 24.6% in 2015. Revenue from this market would decrease by 20.7%.
The Kasikorn predictions contrast darkly with the figures of the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, which recorded a total of 1.74 million Russian tourists visiting Thailand in 2013, up 32.66% from 2012, with a revenue rise to match.
Those figures seem most unlikely to be matched this year, given that the ministry itself gives a January-November figure for 2014 of 757,502, down from 930,843 in the same period of 2013.
That’s a fall of almost 19pc.